New Delhi. Rainfall activity is likely to enhance over many parts of the country from today. India Meteorological Department says the monsoon activity was by and large subdued as during the second week compared to the activity during the first week of this month. It was mainly attributed to the shift of the axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level to the north of its normal position and absence of pro-rainfall systems over the Bay of Bengal. However, the eastern end of the trough remained in near normal position with day to day oscillation and in association with an upper air cyclonic circulation; it caused fairly widespread rainfall activity over parts of central and adjoining peninsular India. Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, rainfall was excess in 08, normal in 04, deficient in 19 and scanty in 05 sub-divisions during the first week. Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Sub- Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim has received good rainfall during the week.

The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole during this year’s monsoon up to 15 July has so far been 14% below the LPA. Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 06, normal over 16 and deficient in 14 sub-divisions.

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models indicate a shift of Monsoon Trough to the north of its normal position from yesterday. The forecast also indicates formation of a cyclonic circulation in lower tropospheric levels over Uttar Pradesh around tomorrow. A Western Disturbance is likely to affect northwest India from today. NWP models do not indicate formation of any monsoon depression during the next 5-7 days.

With the strengthening of cross equatorial flow over Arabian sea and dipping of monsoon trough in the Bay of Bengal, increase in rainfall activity is likely over east, central India and peninsular India.